And speaking of Apple Watch…

$1,549,836,784.  That’s 1.5 Billion.

If we take the data from Slice Intelligence released near the beginning of July as in any way accurate regarding the online-only sales of Apple Watch from launch in mid-April through late-June (not three full months, but just barely over two months worth of time on market), then that number represents the revenue that Apple has earned on the Apple Watch in those two-plus months.  In the United States alone.  From online sales only.  That’s from 3,039,353 units.

I don’t believe that there are many companies for which such revenue in 2-1/2 months on a brand new product in a nascent category would be considered a “flop.”

And yet that was the takeaway that most news/media sites went with based on this data.  And the chart provided by Slice Intelligence (via Macrumors.com) didn’t help clarify things at all.

See that “slide” in June?  Looks pretty bad for the Apple Watch doesn’t it?  Well, when you learn how Slice gets their data – from the email receipts for purchases made online by persons in the US who’ve opted in to be tracked by Slice in return for other services – you realize a few important things.

First, this data, as I’ve noted, is for the US alone.  There are a slew of other territories, including Canada, the UK, and, most notably, China, not included in this data and in which Apple Watch has been on sale throughout that same time period.  Even assuming that the US accounts for more than half of all sales – not certain anymore with the rise of China as a consumer nation – that 3 million sales in 2.5 months may actually yield more like 5 million worldwide.

And second, the data does not include in-store sales.  Admittedly, Apple did not begin selling the Apple Watch in its own retail stores until mid June.  But the announcement of in-store availability seems to coincide with the beginning of that “slide” seen in June.  Is it possible that more people were starting to go to brick-and-mortar stores to try on and then buy the Watch in person rather than go online?  I know that’s exactly what I did.

So, the REAL takeaway from all of this?  It is far too early to declare the Apple Watch a failure or a success based on any analysis of data other than what Apple may provide.  And guess what?  Apple has already made clear – in their last couple of earnings conference calls – that they will not be announcing or breaking out Apple Watch sales.

There’s another call coming tomorrow.  And Wall Street and tech analysts will be eager to hear any numbers Apple may attach to the Apple Watch.  But I believe they will disappointed… not in the numbers, but in the absence of any numbers.

Apple has this horrifying tendency to do precisely what it says it will do.